Government report: Full Assessment – 2026 National Climate Change Risk Assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand
- Apr 30
- 2 min read
Published in April 2026 by He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission, this is the second statutory National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA), required under the Climate Change Response Act 2002. It is a full assessment covering 37 climate-related risks across seven interconnected domains, incorporating updated climate projections and new analysis since the first NCCRA in 2020. It is one of four reports in the Commission's 2026 assessment suite; the others address priorities for action, methodology, and — significantly — a dedicated standalone Māori climate risk assessment.
That companion report, Ngā mea hirahira o te ao Māori (things of importance in the Māori world), was produced independently by researchers from Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research and Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga, and its findings are accepted in full by the Commission and embedded throughout this full assessment. A dedicated domain in this report — also titled Ngā mea hirahira o te ao Māori — identifies seven risks of particular significance to iwi, hapū and whānau: damage to Māori infrastructure; disruption to tikanga and hapū/iwi identity; loss of access to taonga species; loss of Indigenous knowledge systems; legal exclusion and governance failures for Māori; economic losses in primary industries; and increased Māori health vulnerabilities. The report is explicit that climate impacts on Māori are not only physical or economic — they threaten cultural continuity, intergenerational mātauranga transfer, and the ability to exercise tino rangatiratanga.
A further governance risk — the ability to uphold Te Tiriti o Waitangi in adaptation governance and implementation — is assessed as a standalone risk within the governance domain, reflecting the structural dimension of climate vulnerability for Māori. For Project Kāinga, this is the most current and comprehensive national climate risk evidence base available. The Ngā mea hirahira o te ao Māori companion report in particular warrants its own pānui entry.
